2026-04-28
Why I am optimistic on solar energy?
Disclaimer
Main
- Our World in Data has a graph on solar PV module prices
- See also: My timelines for various deep tech
- Energy prices have remained at approx $0.10/kWh (inflation-adjusted) since world war 2. There are engineering limits to how cheaply you can produce energy using coal or petroleum. Anything that changes this situation is extremely important.
- Why this important: Energy prices are arguably the single most important factor for cost of living and human happiness. Nuclear weapons and crude oil deals are arguably the biggest drivers of geopolitics.
- I am not studying solar energy price curves, or trying to forecast energy prices.
- I think artificial superintelligence and human genetic engineering are even more radical shifts in society and hence deserve more of my attention. The best case scenario of solar energy prices going down a lot is "this is as big as the industrial revolution and the Enlightenment". The best (or worst case) scenario of artificial superintelligence being built is "this is bigger than the creation of all biological life on planet Earth." The latter seems obviously way more important.
- That being said, maybe some people should be studying solar price curves anyway? Artificial superintelligence and human genetic engineering come with large downsides if done wrong and I am quite pessimistic on our current economic and political systems handling them well. I currently support pausing these technologies. Whereas solar prices dropping doesn't seem to have much downsides, and I am quite optimistic our current economic and political systems handling this transition well.
- There are geopolitical implications of both succeeding or failing to transition to solar energy. If we fail the transition, countries most affected by climate change (due to failed crops or flooding or similar) may threaten war. If we are succeeding at the transition, countries most dependent on fossil fuel export revnue may trigger war. I think the probability of a nuclear war being triggered this way is still quite low. I am fine with all these downsides as long as the world transitions to solar energy.
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