2025-10-23
My timelines on all deeptech
(assuming no pause enforced politically, assuming no civilisational catastrophe, assuming superhuman intelligence doesn't accelerate all the timelines)
Superintelligence
- Artificial superintelligence - maybe in 5 years. likely in 30 years
- Human genetic editing - likely in 5 years, very likely in 30 years
- Whole brain emulation of humans - very unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
Likely
- Solar energy replaces fossil fuels - maybe in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
- Population-scale gene sequencing - maybe in 5 years, very likely in 30 years
- Population-scale gene editing (gene drives) - likely in 5 years, likely in 30 years
- Engineered bioweapons - maybe in 5 years, likely in 30 years
- Brain computer interfaces - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
- Artifical meat, meal replacements - very likely in 5 years
- Gigapixel cameras - very likely in 5 years
Unlikely
- Metaverse video calls as good as irl - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
- Cryonics - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
- Fusion energy - very unlikely in 5 years, unlikely in 30 years
- Biological anti-aging - very unlikely in 30 years
- Quantum computing - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
- 3D printing - already used in some niches, very unlikely to replace mass manufacturing in 30 years
- Nanotechnology - very unlikely in 5 years, unlikely in 30 years
- Carbon capture - unlikely in 5 years, ??? in 30 years
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