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2026-09-12

Bombing TSMC will only purchase a few years of time

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This should go without saying, but bombing TSMC will only purchase a few years of time. It will not end the race to build ASI, all by itself.
The knowledge for how to build chip fabs still exists, and eventually people will rebuild the fabs in some country or the other.
Even if you managed to kill the hundreds of scientists who have knowledge in their heads, knowledge never penned down, even then it is only a matter of time until another group of people figures out these insights on their own via their own hit-and-trial.
It is worth estimating how many years the ASI race will get delayed by, by bombing TSMC. Is it closer to 3 years or 20 years? I'm pretty confident it is not more than 20 years, as a clear upper bound.

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