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2026-08-07

The masculine urge to put your entire net worth in Nvidia far OTM calls

Disclaimer

Quick Note
Not financial advice
Not discussing exact numbers of my net worth
Not discussing legality of purchasing options, crypto, etc from India

Main

AAAAA
Frustrated looking at how little financial runway I have left.
Worst case, have to burn a year or two of my life on some dumbfuck job in order to get more runway. One year out of five, given the world may be over in five years.
Feeling the masculine urge to put your entire net worth in Nvidia far OTM calls
- I considered purchasing OpenAI shares through these shady grey market platforms back when OpenAI was barely $35B market cap. I decided against it due to some combination of - it will be a lot of work to figure out how to do this, plus uncertainty as to whether this is a great bet (or merely just a good risk-adjusted). I was confident it was positive EV, I just did not want to put more than maybe 25% of my networth into it back then.
- By the time OpenAI shares were $300B market cap, I was pretty confident this is a great bet, I believed OpenAI was going to hit $1T with atleast 50% probability therefore rational move is just buy. But then I told myself stories around conflict-of-interest and ingroup-versus-outgroup and stuff. Don't fund your enemy. Don't make the incentives such that you are making money when you are losing the war, and losing money when you are winning the war.
- Now that OpenAI shares are $1.5T, I am still confident this is a great bet. Heck, Nvidia is at $5T and I am still confident this is a great bet. For reference, the US S&P500 has a $70T market cap. But now I literally don't have enough free money left to bet, everything is just immediate runway to survive lol. Part of me wants to just put my entire networth in Nvidia far OTM calls, get some tech job, wait for 18 months for my networth to 5x, and then get back into the arena then.

More analysis of the Nvidia bet

Nvidia is trading at a P/E of 33 which is absolutely nuts. I would consider it a positive EV stock even if it was trading at a P/E of 100 lmao. Current market cap is around $5T, current annual revenue is $5T / 33 approx (it varies a lot every quarter).
Bet being analysed: Mark price $220. Strike $260 (20% OTM). Premium is $50. (Breakeven point is $310) Expiry 2028-12-15. Today is 2026-08-07
- I would put atleast 25% probability of Nvidia being worth 5x by 2028-12
  - As in market cap $25T, stock price $1100
  - In this scenario, Nvidia basically eats up the entire world economy. This means dumb and big funds also are accounting for a significant chance the singularity is coming. Profit multiple = (1100-260-50)/50 = 15.8x
  - This tail scenario alone justifies the entire bet. 15.8x * 25% = 4x, which means lower bound EV is already 400%. The rest of the discussion is just to figure out bet sizing.
- I'd put atleast 25% probability Nvidia crashes, hence profit multiple = -1x
- I'd put atleast 15% probability Nvidia remains at roughly the same price till 2028-12 atleast, hence profit multiple = -1x
- The remaining 35% probability mass here is what I am most unsure about. Will it 1.5x or 2x or 3x?
  - If Nvidia does 1.5x, your bet makes a loss. (220 * 1.5 - 260 - 50)/50 = 0.4x
  - If Nvidia does 2x, your bet does well. (220 * 2 - 260 - 50)/50 = 2.6x
  - If Nvidia does 3x, your bet does very well. (220 * 3 - 260 - 50)/50 = 7x
All-in-all this bet has an expected value of maybe 600% in ~2.5 years, which is completely nuts? There is a roughly 50-50 chance of it also going to zero though.
- Also, I don't care about losing my net worth in the worlds where ASI doesn't come soon. If there has been no major AI progress till 2028-12, that is also a bearish signal for AI progress happening in the years after that. Maybe I am fine with just taking the loss in 50% of possible worlds.

Main 2

Foregoing an upside of 600% just to take a bet on myself seems atleast a little bit insane. But also on the other hand it feels like the obvious move. Like, obviously having $100k or $1M is going to mean nothing if you wasted the next 3 years fucking around, obviously right now is the time to do direct work.
There is also the whole conflict of interest thing ofcourse. On one hand, I am telling people to go bomb TSMC, on the other hand my networth is stuck in Nvidia calls. Seems hypocritical. You can't be diversifying risk at a moment like this. Pick a side and fucking fight for it.

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