2025-10-23

# My timelines on all deeptech

(assuming no pause enforced politically, assuming no civilisational catastrophe, assuming superhuman intelligence doesn't accelerate all the timelines)

Superintelligence
 - Artificial superintelligence - maybe in 5 years. likely in 30 years
 - Human genetic editing - likely in 5 years, very likely in 30 years
 - Whole brain emulation of humans - very unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years

Likely
 - Solar energy replaces fossil fuels - maybe in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
 - Population-scale gene sequencing - maybe in 5 years, very likely in 30 years
 - Population-scale gene editing (gene drives) - likely in 5 years, likely in 30 years
 - Engineered bioweapons - maybe in 5 years, likely in 30 years
 - Brain computer interfaces - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
 - Artifical meat, meal replacements - very likely in 5 years
 - Gigapixel cameras - very likely in 5 years

Unlikely
 - Metaverse video calls as good as irl - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
 - Cryonics - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
 - Fusion energy - very unlikely in 5 years, unlikely in 30 years
 - Biological anti-aging - very unlikely in 30 years
 - Quantum computing - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
 - 3D printing - already used in some niches, very unlikely to replace mass manufacturing in 30 years
 - Nanotechnology - very unlikely in 5 years, unlikely in 30 years
 - Carbon capture - unlikely in 5 years, ??? in 30 years