2026-10-25
Do drones replace human snipers as of 2026?
Disclaimer
Main
- I still don't yet have a clear answer to this question. My intuition says yes they replace them, but it is not fully clear to me.
- Human snipers do recon and actual kills. Drones can currently do both.
- Long distance shots made by humans snipers are typically in the one kilometre range. An off-the-shelf consumer can cover that distance in under thirty seconds.
- A good sniper rifle is in the $5-10k range, whereas a drone's starting cost is $200. You can just spam multiple drones at the same target if required.
- The person flying the drone can literally be on another continent, so there is less risk to the human. A much noticeably smaller number of humans are required on ground today, in conflicts using drones.
- We have already seen this used in existing conflicts, so this is not speculative.
P.S. Ofcourse, in the limit, you can imagine fully automated armies. You can have AI-driven trucks full of drones to hold your territory, you can have AI-powered sniper rifles, you can use a heavier class of AI-powered drones to move the AI-powered sniper rifles, and so on. That is why I used the qualifier, "in 2026", as opposed to asking about where this tech goes in the limit.
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