2026-02-07
How to predict if groupthink is happening
Disclaimer
Main
- How to predict if groupthink is happening
- What they do
- Sometimes Alice does the exact same thing Bob and Carol do. In this case, this indicates atleast some likelihood of groupthink occuring. If Alice does something different from what Bob and Carol do, sometimes you may have no data telling you whether Bob and Carol approve of this, or disapprove, or are neutral. This makes it hard to tell if groupthink is happening.
- What they say
- Sometimes Alice will openly tell you that she feels pressured by Bob and Carol to do some particular thing. In this case, safe to assume a very high likelihood she is being honest. Sometimes Bob and Carol will openly tell you that they will like Alice less as a person if she does this. In this case too, safe to assume a very high likelihood they are being honest. Sometimes you have no data of Alice, Bob or Carol saying anything.
- What they think
- Sometimes Alice thinks she is being pressured by Bob and Carol to do some particular thing. But she may not say this.
- Sometimes Bob and Carol are aware that are pressuring Alice to do some thing, by choosing to approve of her less if she doesn't. But they may not say this.
- What they subconsciously think
- Sometimes Alice is herself not aware why she is doing something. It might just be automatic for her. Also, there might (or might not) be a part of her that she has suppressed, that is basically simulating Bob and Carol's disapproval of her. Alice may (or may not) have alternate explanation in her head for why she is doing something.
- I want to be especially careful about accusing anyone of doing this. I think I should put more effort to rule out all the other possibilities first.
- Often Bob and Carol are not aware that they are withholding their approval for Alice until she does the thing, and that Alice feels pressured to do the thing, and that these two facts are connected. It is common for people to have explanations in their own head that paint themselves in a nicer light than this. Sometimes Bob and Carol are aware that they are doing this.
- I am increasingly starting to prefer the phrase "groupthink" over the phrase "status seeking". Because this phenomena is so important, I think I increasingly want to be careful about words I use, and not just write whatever.
- Another reason to be careful is that I am sometimes using these concepts to accuse specific people of groupthink, and it is possible they might read these accusations and respond. If I have a bad understanding of groupthink as a concept in general, I might also end up making lots of unwarranted criticisms of specific people using these concepts. (This has happened multiple times now, this is not a hypothetical anymore.)
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