2026-05-13
My P(doom) seems to have gone up
Disclaimer
Main
- I am not prioritising making a super long post right now, but I do now think P(human extinction, conditional on ASI built) is significantly higher than the 33% figure I've been mentioning for the past year. Might make a proper post sometime, or might not, doesn't seem super decision-relevant to me but might be to others.
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