Then there is the much slower process of blowing open the whole world. That is actually less urgent (although it is still urgent). Even if we are 5 years away from ASI, that doesn't mean we are 6 years away from ASI in random guy's basement. Blowing open the whole world is only absolutely necessarily required in the second world. If there is more time before the second world happens, there is also more time to get some semblance of informed consent, over multiple rounds, before we blow the world open.
- Measuring lead time here is important. How many years are there between "ASI training only possible in large GPU cluster", "ASI inference only possible in large GPU cluster becaused it is not leaked", "ASI inference possible in basement" and "ASI training possible in basement"?
- holy fuck it is probably less than 5 years right?
- ok I also need a separation here for distributed GPU clusters. Due to lower network bandwidth, training on a distributed cluster is slower than training on a centralised one. But it can totally be done.
- repeating my personal problem yet again: "I consistently text people messages I regret" <= "substance abuse to cope with lack of clarity over my own morality" <= "I am not sure if I have to only cyberattack AI companies and US govt without consent and leak some minimal redacted info without consent, or do I really need to blow open the entire world without consent, immediately" <= "I dont know how many years of lead time exist between ASI trainable on centralised cluster and ASI trainable on distributed rogue cluster"
- lmao I was just staring at epoch AI data and wondering 'does your decision on whether to kill millions of people or not depend on the specifics of GPU chip sale numbers?'
- hmm this sort of founding logic also means that with every passing year, as the situation gets more desperate, we're going to have to forcibly blow open more and more of the world without having time to get any informed consent for it
- (there's a whole separate issue of, even if we expose the info, maybe media coverage won't happen. probably the media coverage will happen but even that is not guaranteed. our desperation level might go up simply because media coverage of our leaks is not happening)