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2026-08-04

Should I promise to attempt an assassination or sabotage as a hail mary strategy against ASI?

Disclaimer

• Contains politically sensitive info
• Thinking aloud, may not endorse after a lot of thought.
• See also: Should I promise to commit suicide as a protest against ASI?

Main

• If I ever come to believe there is atleast 50% chance of ASI in the next one year, it could make rational sense for me to quit my failing plan, and attempt a gameboard-flipping hail mary strategy.
• I previously commented that this hail mary strategy should be to commit suicide at a govt building.
• I now think this is lame and not the best fit for my character. I am already leaning towards violent not non-violent strategies, so I should continue following this for the hail mary.
• The violent hail mary strategies I know of are basically:
  • Attempt assassinating Ilya Sutskever. San Francisco has the largest concentration of research talent for the AI race, and Ilya is probably the single biggest accelerator of new research breakthroughs so far.
  • Figure out which step in the TSMC chip fabs is hardest to rebuild, and tactically bomb the machines involved in that step. Taipei City is the only place that manufactures almost all the compute for the AI race.
• Between the two, I think trying to blow up TSMC makes more sense. Killing Ilya won't slow down AI progress anywhere as much as blowing up TSMC would.

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