1
00:00:06,100 --> 00:00:10,939
In between five and 20 years from now, there's a
good chance, a 50% chance,

2
00:00:11,219 --> 00:00:12,819
we'll get AI smarter than us.

3
00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:16,799
Oh, yeah. Yes. In fact, I have reduced my

4
00:00:17,319 --> 00:00:21,940
expectations for when we will get to AGI or
whatever, human level.

5
00:00:22,719 --> 00:00:24,239
Uh, I used to think it would be

6
00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:29,079
five to 20 years, and now I think it could be, you
know, two to 10 years t-

7
00:00:29,079 --> 00:00:33,979
Uh, and so as a result of that, I, I... Uh, you
can find it

8
00:00:33,979 --> 00:00:38,199
on my blog from about 2009 I think is the first
time I publicly talked about it.

9
00:00:38,619 --> 00:00:42,440
I predicted a 50% chance of, um, AGI by 2028.

10
00:00:43,180 --> 00:00:45,140
How did- I still, I still believe that today.

11
00:00:46,919 --> 00:00:50,840
But still, if you em- if you extrapolate this kind
of progress, we'll be in a very, very

12
00:00:50,959 --> 00:00:51,840
different place

13
00:00:52,700 --> 00:00:54,239
in five years, let alone 10 years.

14
00:00:54,239 --> 00:00:54,399
...

15
00:00:55,279 --> 00:00:59,380
has been added. If you just kind of, like, eyeball
the rate at which these capabilities

16
00:00:59,439 --> 00:01:00,239
are increasing,

17
00:01:01,020 --> 00:01:04,959
it does make you think that we'll get there by
2026 or 2027.

18
00:01:05,239 --> 00:01:10,059
In the essay, you actually say a really big thing,
which is

19
00:01:10,599 --> 00:01:15,379
ASI, superintelligence, is actually thousands of
days

20
00:01:15,419 --> 00:01:15,839
away.

21
00:01:15,860 --> 00:01:18,500
Maybe. I mean, that's our hope and our guess what-

22
00:01:18,500 --> 00:01:18,799
Yeah.

23
00:01:21,659 --> 00:01:24,459
Like, I mean, I think we're quite close to digital
superintelligence.

24
00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:26,720
It, it may happen

25
00:01:27,659 --> 00:01:30,739
this year, and if it doesn't happen this year,
next year for sure.