2024-12-13# Advice (Disclaimer)I am quite confused which audience I should tailo
r this advice page and generally my entire internet presence to. I'm currently e
xperimenting with trying to tailor to everyone simultaneously. I think maintaini
ng multiple separate identities on the internet does not work well over long tim
e horizon. I probably won't update these pages regularly, as giving advice is no
t my primary life goal.I generally hesitate on giving advice. There is a lot of
advice on the internet and a lot of it is noise to me. #### 1. Evidence behind t
he adviceAssuming I was the recipient of advice, here's the hierarchy of how ser
iously I'd take that advice: - advice empirically proven to work - the more me
aningfully distinct circumstances it has worked in, the better - a theoretical
model for why the advice works is a bonus, but sufficient empirical evidence al
ways trumps theory - IMO there are entire fields where the replication crisis
can be solved by making larger sample sizes the norm and small sample sizes as a
bnormal (by getting the funding, culture etc so this is possible) - theoretical
model of why some advice would work - the more distinct types of people are c
onfident in the model, the better - empirical evidence about similar-but-not-s
ame situations is a bonusWhenever you are taking advice from me, try to figure o
ut where exactly on the hierarchy the advice sits. Even if something worked for
me, please remember I am just one person. And if I don't have personal experienc
e with it, please remember this is just one person's guess with no empirical evi
dence.#### 2. Context-dependence of adviceI rarely ever tell people that they "m
ust" or "should" do xyz. If I make this mistake please correct me.You have infor
mation about: - how your brain works - your likes, dislikes, what motivates you,
etc. Conveying information about your feelings to me is difficult, even if you
genuinely want to convey it. So I assume I lack this information about you. In p
articular there is an is-ought distinction where transmitting information is eas
y ("if you do X, Y will probably happen") and transmitting values is hard ("you
should do X"). So I mostly do the former. - your context, your unique life circu
mstances. Conveying this information to me is possible but takes a lot of time.
So I may also be lacking this information about you.This doc is full of me sayin
g "consider" doing xyz. If I use the word "consider", that means there may exist
exceptions to the advice. Sometimes I may be aware of the exceptions but I'm no
t listing them out, and sometime I may not be aware of the exceptions. The point
is to use your own judgement. You are the master of your own life and I'm not i
nterested in being your guru.